Due to strong demand on non-U.S. trade routes, BIMCO recently raised its forecast for container shipping demand growth in 2025 to 4.5%-5.5%, while maintaining the forecast for 2026 at 2.5%-3.5%. Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, stated: "We expect the balance between supply and demand in the market to gradually even out in 2026, but the market performance in 2025 may not surpass that of 2024."

The U.S. tariff increase measures have been fully implemented with only a few exceptions, and additional tariffs on specific goods have also been put into effect.

Due to a decrease in import volumes, imports in North America have been declining year-on-year since April. BIMCO predicts that the market will remain soft for the rest of the year, with a projected 2% decline in North American imports in 2025, before beginning to recover and grow again in 2026.

So far, freight volume growth remains strong in most regions except North America, with BIMCO forecasting global container shipping volumes to grow by 2.5% to 3.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

Ship demand growth in 2025 will outpace freight volume growth, mainly due to long-haul transportation businesses growing above average levels. This trend is particularly notable in exports from Asia to sub-Saharan Africa, South America, Central America, and the Mediterranean region of Europe.

However, it is important to note that current demand is still affected by congestion on the Cape of Good Hope route. Transit through the Suez Canal remains below pre-Red Sea attack levels. If the situation eases and ships return to traditional routes, actual demand could be 10% lower than forecasted.

BIMCO has raised its capacity growth expectations for 2025 to 7.3% while lowering the forecast for 2026 to 3.1%. This is mainly due to a slowdown in ship scrapping activities, which has increased fleet capacity growth. Additionally, a slight increase in sailing speeds has also raised expectations for effective capacity in 2025. The rapid growth in capacity in 2025 leads to a relative decrease in growth rates for 2026 compared to previous forecasts.

Rasmussen concludes that the container shipping market is expected to soften for the remainder of 2025. Currently, time charter rates and second-hand ship prices have not been significantly impacted by the decline in freight rates, but this situation is expected to change starting in the fourth quarter. Given the steady growth in future supply and demand, freight rates are expected to stabilize in 2026.