Recent research by Daniel Duque, a researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV Ibre), shows that the rapid adoption of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is exerting a significant impact on young skilled workers in Brazil, mainly in the form of fewer job opportunities and declining incomes.

According to Brazil’s Folha de S.Paulo, the study is based on data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad Contínua) conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The findings indicate that among people aged 18 to 29 working in industries with higher AI exposure — such as information services and finance — the probability of being employed has dropped by nearly 5% compared with the pre-AI era.

By comparing similar groups of workers in 2022 (before the launch of ChatGPT) and 2025, the study found that after the widespread adoption of AI, young people heavily exposed to the technology not only faced higher unemployment but also saw their incomes fall by around 7%. Duque explained that AI performs strongly in entry-level tasks such as administrative support and basic services, which serve as crucial starting points for young people entering the workforce. “Basic roles that AI can perform more efficiently and at lower cost are the most vulnerable to replacement,” he said.

In contrast, the impact of AI on older workers remains relatively limited. Duque noted that older employees are more often engaged in decision-making roles, which current AI systems still struggle to handle.

On the income front, the study argues that AI is driving down the value of standardized work, which forms the starting point for many administrative careers. However, Duque cautioned that given the short time span of the data, the conclusions should be interpreted with care — yet “the noticeable impact at such an early stage is already a cause for concern.”

This research builds on previous surveys, which showed that as of the third quarter of last year, around 30 million workers in Brazil were employed in occupations potentially affected by generative AI, accounting for 29.6% of the total employed population. Of these, roughly 5.2 million were in highly exposed roles, concentrated mainly among young people, highly educated workers, those in the Southeast region, and service sectors including information and communications technology (ICT) and finance.

Bruno Imaizumi, an economist at consulting firm 4intelligence, stated that AI is increasingly replacing highly repetitive tasks, which are mostly concentrated at the early career stage. This trend is not unique to Brazil; it has already become evident in mature labor markets such as the United States.

His earlier research estimated that 30.5% of Brazil’s employed population could be affected by AI to varying degrees, with around 5.3% facing high risk — meaning their job tasks could be fully automated. Notably, the public sector accounts for a large share of high-risk positions, which may lead to a restructuring of job responsibilities in the future.

Regarding long-term effects, Duque said there remains considerable uncertainty. “If young people face greater obstacles at the start of their careers, the long-term consequences could be profound: lower starting salaries, slower accumulation of experience, and when they gradually become the mainstay of the workforce, potential declines in both productivity and savings capacity.”