US Route Freight Rates Defy the Trend and Strengthen: An In-Depth Analysis of Why Trans-Pacific Routes Stand Out

> The latest data shows that trans-Pacific US route freight rates continue to climb, making it the brightest route in the global shipping market. This article combines Drewry Weekly Reports, Xeneta indices, and industry dynamics to deeply analyze the core drivers behind the rate strengthening, and provides response strategies for freight forwarding companies, foreign trade companies, and cross-border e-commerce sellers.

I. Drewry's Latest Freight Rate Data: Gains Exceed Expectations

According to Drewry's latest weekly report released on May 16, trans-Pacific route freight rates surged far beyond market expectations:

| Route | Freight Rate (USD/FEU) | Weekly Change |
|-------|----------------------|---------------|
| Shanghai → Los Angeles | $3,357 | +10% |
| Shanghai → New York | $4,252 | +14% |

Simultaneously, Xeneta market monitoring data corroborates this trend:

US West Coast route: $2,884/FEU
US East Coast route: $3,974/FEU

The simultaneous strengthening of both authoritative indices means this round of US route rate increases is not a short-term fluctuation but the result of multiple structural factors compounding.

II. Six Core Drivers Behind the Rate Strengthening

1. Amazon Prime Day Stocking Demand Released Ahead of Schedule

The 2025 Amazon Prime Day has been officially scheduled for June. Following historical patterns, the 6–8 weeks before the promotion is the window when sellers concentrate their stocking. This year, sellers' stocking rhythm has been notably earlier, with the shipping peak already hitting mid-May. Prime Day order volumes typically surge 3–5x during the promotion period, and large volumes of goods shipping simultaneously directly drive up space demand.

2. US Elimination of De Minimis Exemption Forces Logistics Model Transformation

At the beginning of 2025, the United States officially canceled the de minimis exemption for packages valued at ≤$800. This policy change has had a tremendous impact on direct-mail e-commerce models:

Platforms like Temu and Shein saw direct-mail costs rise substantially
Direct-mail small parcels lost competitive advantage, and sellers shifted in large numbers to ocean FCL (Full Container Load)
Soaring FCL demand further compressed effective market capacity

3. Three Major Carriers Simultaneously Pushed Rate Increases, Exceeding Expectations

Starting from May 15, the three global shipping giants — Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd —相继宣布上调运价. This synchronized rate increase across three major carriers within the same window is rare in recent years, reflecting liner companies' strong confidence in improved market supply-demand dynamics.

4. Effective Capacity Tightened, Vessel Turnaround Efficiency Declined

Due to the sustained tension in the Red Sea situation, a large number of commercial vessels have been rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, leading to:

Extended transit routes: Asia-Europe routes have added approximately 10–14 days per journey, effectively consuming substantial capacity
Reduced vessel turnaround rates: Under equal capacity, actual available space has decreased
Increased schedule unreliability: Shippers tend to book space early to lock in slots, amplifying spot capacity tightness

5. Structural Growth in Cross-Border E-commerce Cargo

Beyond Prime Day factors, overall US market demand remains resilient. Cross-border e-commerce cargo, after a correction period in 2024, re-entered an上升通道 in 2025:

Amazon FBA replenishment demand continues to be robust
Independent website sellers are increasing, with higher requirements for stable space and transit times
High-value-added cargo proportion is rising, making such shipments less sensitive to freight rate changes

6. Port Congestion and Supply Chain Bottlenecks Re-emerge

Both US West Coast (Los Angeles/Long Beach) and US East Coast (New York/New Jersey) ports are showing signs of varying degrees of congestion:

Rail intermodal efficiency fluctuates, and truck driver resources are tight
Number of vessels waiting at port is increasing, and port detention costs are rising
Supply chain bottlenecks extending inland, further compressing logistics transit times

III. Impact on Different Market Participants

Freight Forwarders: Danger and Opportunity Coexist

For freight forwarding companies, rising US route freight rates are both pressure and opportunity:

Upstream bargaining power: Forwarders with long-term contracts with carriers can lock in some advantageous space during the rate-hike wave
Value-added services become more prominent: Client demand for professional space guarantees and integrated trailer-customs services rises
Price volatility risk: Spot market prices adjust frequently, requiring good customer communication and risk management

Foreign Trade Companies and Cross-Border E-commerce Sellers: Cost Pressure, Early Planning is Key

Cost side: Rising ocean freight directly erodes margins, especially for low-margin product categories
Stocking rhythm: Recommend starting stocking 6–8 weeks in advance to avoid the most congested space periods
Logistics model selection: As direct-mail small parcel cost advantages diminish, priority can be given to FCL full containers or fast ocean freight to US solutions

IV. Trend Outlook and Operational Recommendations

Short-term (1–3 months): Freight Rates Remain High with Increased Volatility

Around Prime Day (June–July) is the most resilient window for freight rates. After the stocking wave subsides, rates may decline slightly, but overall will remain above last year's level. Recommendations:

> ✅ Lock in space as soon as possible, especially for main corridors from South China/East China to US West Coast
> ✅ Ship in batches, avoiding putting all eggs in one shipping schedule
> ✅ Establish deep cooperation with freight forwarders to secure contracted space guarantees

Medium-term (3–6 months): Monitor Policy and Supply-Demand Marginal Changes

Direction of US tariff policy (Trump may restart tariffs)
Evolution of the Red Sea situation (if it eases, Asia-Europe route capacity will return)
Progress of US West Coast port labor negotiations (may trigger a new round of supply chain disruptions)

Long-term: Digitalization and Compliance are Core Competitive Strengths

Against the backdrop of deep restructuring of the global supply chain, the core competitive strength of freight forwarding enterprises and foreign trade enterprises will increasingly depend on:

Digital tools: Real-time tracking, intelligent quoting, route optimization
Compliant operations: Taxation, customs, intellectual property protection
Flexible supply chain: Multi-channel, multi-logistics mode stocking, reducing reliance on single pathways

V. Conclusion

The contrarian strengthening of US route freight rates is by no means a random event. It is the result of multiple factors resonating: e-commerce peak season, policy changes, carrier strategies, geopolitical risks, and structural market demand. For freight forwarding companies, this is both a short-term profit window and a关键时刻 testing professional capabilities and service depth. Early layout, proactive communication, and scientific planning are the only ways to gain the upper hand in volatile markets.

Data sources: Drewry World Container Index (weekly report, May 16, 2025); Xeneta real-time market index. Freight rate fluctuations are influenced by multiple factors. It is recommended to consult professional freight forwarders in conjunction with your own business situation.