On the 5th local time, President Trump, in an interview with CNBC, announced that the United States will first impose "small tariffs" on imported drugs, gradually increasing the tax rate over about a year.
He stated, "Within a year, at the most a year and a half, the tariff rate will rise to 150%, and then to 250%, because we want drugs to be produced in our country." However, he did not disclose the initial tariff rate for drugs.
Trump also announced that he will impose tariffs on semiconductors and chips "around next week," but did not provide details.
Trump claimed that these measures can "lower drug prices and increase U.S. national security." Professionals have indicated that achieving both objectives, given the complex supply chains and high domestic production costs in the United States, may be challenging, and tariff policies could bring more uncertainty to the U.S. pharmaceutical industry and businesses.
Various U.S. pharmaceutical companies have stated that they will increase investments in the United States to avoid tariffs. For example, Johnson & Johnson plans to invest $55 billion to strengthen domestic production and research and development, Eli Lilly plans to invest $27 billion to build four new pharmaceutical plants in the U.S., and AstraZeneca has announced a $50 billion investment to expand drug production. Currently, the total planned investment by U.S. pharmaceutical companies in the U.S. exceeds $250 billion.
Stephen Forelli, Head of the Global Healthcare Division of the Dutch international group, pointed out that although pharmaceutical companies may establish factories in the United States, the costs of labor, electricity, transportation, etc., needed for production in the U.S. are much higher than in other countries, and "Made in America" may not necessarily be cost-effective.
Additionally, Trump also mentioned that he will "substantially" increase tariffs on goods imported from India in the next 24 hours because India continues to purchase Russian oil. Trump did not specify the new tariff rates.
The latest U.S. employment data shows a sharp slowdown in the economy and labor market, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may undergo a shift. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, with a 94.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. Citigroup predicts that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December this year, followed by two more 25 basis point cuts in the first half of next year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.0% to 3.25%.