According to data released by the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) on February 5th, Brazil's trade surplus in January reached the second-highest level in history due to a decrease in imports. The trade surplus for the previous month amounted to $4.342 billion, marking an 85.8% increase from $2.337 billion in the same period in 2025. This surplus is only surpassed by the record of $6.196 billion set in January 2024.

Statistical data indicates that in January 2026, Brazil's exports amounted to $25.153 billion, a 1% decrease compared to the previous year, while imports totaled $20.810 billion, marking a 9.8% decrease year-on-year.

The export figure for January reached the third-highest level since the series began in 1989, trailing only behind January 2024 and 2025. On the other hand, the import figure set the second-highest level in history, following last year's January data.

In terms of agricultural exports, Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 increased by 91.7% year-on-year, mainly due to advanced shipments; exports of unprocessed corn grew by 18.8%. Crude oil exports decreased by $364.6 million compared to January 2025, often due to significant monthly fluctuations in oil exports as a result of planned maintenance on oil extraction platforms. The decrease in imports is related to reduced oil imports, slowing economic growth, and decreased investment activity.

The Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services forecasts Brazil's trade balance for 2026 to range between $70 billion to $90 billion, total exports between $340 billion to $380 billion, and total imports between $270 billion to $290 billion.

Official forecasts for the trade balance are updated quarterly. The Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services stated that detailed new forecasts regarding exports, imports, and trade balance for 2026 will be published in April. In the previous year, Brazil's trade surplus amounted to $68.3 billion, with the highest recorded surplus to date being in 2023 when the annual surplus reached $98.9 billion.