This year, Brazil's economic growth is expected to rely more on household consumption and the service sector, rather than the growth momentum brought by agriculture last year. According to market forecasts, 59% of the economic growth in 2026 will mainly come from industries such as commerce, transportation, banking, and other service providers.

Economists consulted by the Brazilian newspaper "O Estado de São Paulo" stated that high interest rates will continue to put pressure on economic activities. Nevertheless, income growth initiatives and consumption stimulus measures introduced by the government will limit further slowdown in economic growth. If the market forecasts collected by the Brazilian Central Bank in the Focus report are confirmed, economic growth is expected to decrease from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026.

The expected economic slowdown will impact nearly all industries, although different sectors will be affected to varying degrees. While financial conditions are likely to continue to challenge the service sector, a robust labor market should support income growth and benefit from income tax exemptions and additional loans.

Economists suggest that although 2026 is unlikely to replicate the weather conditions favorable to major crop production seen last year, spending on goods and services is expected to be supported by an active labor market and an expanding income group.

Last year, the service sector once again emerged as the main driver of economic growth, contributing to nearly half of the GDP growth, with agriculture as its strong ally. However, economists are cautious about the performance of the agricultural sector in 2026, mainly due to the increased challenges in growth and potential climate changes.

Industrial growth rates are expected to be lower compared to other industries, but the mining sector typically offsets this by increasing oil and mineral production. The contribution of the entire industrial sector to GDP growth is expected to be slightly higher than the expectations for 2025.

Household consumption will be the primary driver of economic growth in 2026, benefiting from a strong labor market, new credit options, and adjustments in income tax rates. Growth in the service sector is expected to remain stable, while the industrial sector, especially manufacturing, may experience a significant slowdown in growth.

The World Cup typically boosts sales of beverages, food, and televisions, serving as one of the factors driving the retail sector to maintain growth by the end of the year. Risks include the increase in the minimum wage and household debt, as they may constrain credit supply in 2026.