After the United States imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, a significant loss of formal contracted workers has been observed in six export industries in Brazil, according to a study by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre/FGV).

Reported by the "São Paulo State Newspaper," there has been a substantial decrease in job positions in industries highly sensitive to tariff measures. Researchers Janaína Feijó and Helena Zahar from Ibre/FGV highlighted that sectors such as metal products manufacturing, forestry production, metallurgy, and wood product manufacturing are particularly affected. This survey is based on microdata from the Brazilian Ministry of Labor's New Employment and Unemployment Register (Novo Caged).

In August, the Brazilian labor market saw a net increase of 147,358 formal job positions, marking the lowest monthly figure in the Novo Caged series data since January 2020, a 38.4% decrease from the 239,069 new positions added in August 2024.

The decline in net job creation is more pronounced in export-sensitive industries. For instance, the net job creation in wood product manufacturing shifted from an increase of 579 positions in August 2024 to a decrease of 1,780 positions in the same month this year, resulting in an increase of 2,359 unemployed positions.

Feijó explained, "This is an adjustment because by mid-July, all information related to the tariff increase had already started to circulate. Therefore, agents and entrepreneurs eventually create expectations and have already begun to adjust. If they were planning to hire more employees or even extend the hiring of temporary workers, this may affect that relationship, and they may end up dismissing them."

It is expected that the overall employment balance in the formal labor market will continue to show positive growth by 2025 but at a reduced pace. Feijó estimated, "August was the worst August in the past four years."