Marcela Kawauti, Chief Economist at Lifetime Asset Management, stated that the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran could have a "quite significant" impact on inflation in Brazil. Analysts believe that this conflict directly affects the circulation of essential commodities for Brazil and may transmit inflation effects throughout the entire production chain.

CNN Brazil reports that oil is a fundamental fuel for industrial production and transportation, and its price increase has significant implications. On the 3rd, Brent crude oil prices rose by 4%, closing at $81 per barrel. According to a report from Tendências Consultoria, oil prices around $80 per barrel could cause a 0.25 percentage point impact on inflation in Brazil.

Chief Economist Kawauti focused on the issue of fertilizers. Although Brazil's trade volume with Iran is not substantial, the main products supplied by Iran to the Brazilian market are essential inputs for agricultural enterprises. According to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services (MDIC) in Brazil, Brazil imported fertilizers worth $66.8 million from Iran.

While the proportion of fertilizer imports is not high, the increase in international fertilizer prices will have a significant impact on Brazilian agriculture, which heavily relies on imported fertilizers. The rising cost of fertilizers will increase field production costs, subsequently raising food prices.

Considering that around 20% of global oil trade passes through the region, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a reduction in oil transportation. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical channel for global oil transportation.

Brazil's existing diesel stocks provide some buffer, but sustained price increases could affect fuel price adjustments, subsequently impacting freight and food prices. This will transmit through a series of production chains to consumer inflation rates, significantly affecting the Brazilian economy.