On June 6, 2026, the latest edition of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange showed the composite freight index closing at 2,726.48 points, up 4.7% from the previous week — marking the fifth consecutive weekly rise. Even more noteworthy, the Europe ocean freight rate index surpassed the key 2,000-point threshold for the first time, closing at 2,038.09 points with a weekly gain of 9.4%, the largest single-week increase since 2023. What market logic lies behind the SCFI five-week rally? This article provides an in-depth analysis.
Looking back at SCFI's trajectory over the past five weeks, the strong upward trend in the freight index is clearly visible. From 2,380.62 points in the first week of May to 2,726.48 points in the first week of June, the SCFI composite index rose 14.5% cumulatively over five weeks — a gain that is quite rare in the shipping market's recent volatile history.
| Week | Date | SCFI Composite | Weekly Change | Europe Route Index |
|------|------|---------------|---------------|-------------------|
| Week 1 | May 9 | 2,380.62 | +2.1% | 1,658.33 |
| Week 2 | May 16 | 2,468.75 | +3.7% | 1,745.28 |
| Week 3 | May 23 | 2,542.16 | +3.0% | 1,826.47 |
| Week 4 | May 30 | 2,604.83 | +2.5% | 1,862.15 |
| Week 5 | June 6 | 2,726.48 | +4.7% | 2,038.09 |
Among all SCFI sub-indices, the Europe route delivered the most outstanding performance. The Europe route freight index released on June 6 closed at 2,038.09 points, breaking through the important psychological2,000-point level with a weekly gain of 9.4% — nearly double the composite index's gain. The Mediterranean route also performed strongly, with the freight index at 2,245.67 points and a weekly gain of 8.6%.
The Europe route's strong performance also drove gains across other ocean freight routes. The US West Coast route index closed at 3,186.42 points with a weekly gain of 4.2%; US East Coast at 3,968.75 points, up 3.8%; and the Persian Gulf route at 1,586.34 points, up 5.5%. The Europe route has clearly become the "bellwether" of this freight rate rally.
The primary factor driving this freight rate surge is a significant demand-side rebound. Since the second quarter of 2026, as inflationary pressures in major European and American economies have gradually eased, consumer market confidence has recovered, and import demand has shown restorative growth. Data from multiple research institutions shows that in May, China's containerized export cargo volume to Europe grew approximately 12% compared to April, with particularly notable increases in electronics, machinery, and consumer goods categories.
At the same time, European and American retailers and manufacturers are entering a new inventory replenishment cycle. After more than a year of inventory digestion, raw material and finished goods inventory levels throughout European and American supply chains have dropped to historically low levels. With the clear signal of demand recovery, the concentrated release of restocking demand has directly boosted containerized international logistics and shipping demand growth.
While demand has recovered, the supply side of capacity has tightened. Affected by the earlier slump in the shipping market, a large number of container vessels were idled or operating at reduced speeds, reducing active capacity. According to shipping consultancy data, as of the end of May, the idling rate of the global container fleet had dropped from8% at the beginning of the year to approximately 4%, but a certain amount of capacity had yet to be fully released.
More critically, the Suez Canal and Red Sea situation has had a profound impact on the Asia-Europe route capacity layout. Since the second half of 2025, multiple major shipping lines have been forced to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding7 to 10 days to the one-way voyage for Asia-Europe routes. Vessel周转 efficiency has dropped sharply, effectively reducing available capacity by 15% to 20%.
Additionally, the continuous rise in seafarer labor costs cannot be ignored. According to reports from the International Maritime Organization, the average salary of senior seafarers globally had risen by more than 25% in 2026 compared to 2020, while demand for high-quality seafarers on European and American routes is even more robust, further elevating related costs.
In recent years, the concentration of the global liner shipping market has continued to increase. In 2026, the top 10 global liner companies accounted for over 85% of total capacity, and the market structure has become increasingly oligopolistic. This change in market structure has significantly strengthened the pricing power of major shipping lines in freight rate negotiations.
During this freight rate rally, the three major shipping alliances — 2M, Ocean Alliance, and THE Alliance — effectively drove freight rate increases through coordinated capacity deployment and route planning. This "tacit coordination," against the backdrop of tight market supply, had a particularly pronounced supportive effect on freight rates.
Sustained freight rate increases have had a significant impact on the freight forwarding industry. Small and medium-sized freight forwarding companies (货代), lacking scale advantages and long-term contract protection, face dual pressures of rising costs and customer losses. Large freight forwarding companies with scale advantages and comprehensive global networks, however, have demonstrated stronger risk-resilience amid freight rate volatility through strategic relationships with liner companies.
According to industry insiders, the phenomenon of "difficulty securing space" has reemerged in the market, with bookings for some popular routes already pushed out to mid-July. For shippers, advance planning and space locking have become essential strategies to ensure timely cargo shipment.
The most direct impact of freight rate increases is rising logistics costs for export enterprises. Taking a 40ft high-cube container as an example, current Europe route freight rates have risen from approximately $1,800 at the beginning of the year to over $2,000. Add port charges, bunker adjustment factors, peak season surcharges, and other various fees, and the all-in freight cost per container is approaching $3,000.
For labor-intensive export enterprises such as textiles, apparel, toys, and furniture — industries with inherently thin profit margins — the cost pressure from freight rate increases is even more pronounced. Some enterprises stated that current freight rate levels are approaching their breakeven points, and if freight rates continue to rise, they will have to consider price increases or order reductions as responses.
Notably, the era of high freight rates has also prompted more enterprises to reassess supply chain resilience issues. Multiple supply chain management experts recommend that export enterprises strengthen their efforts in supply chain diversification, flexible logistics solutions, and inventory strategy optimization to cope with potential future market volatility.
Looking one to two months ahead, the arrival of the summer peak consumption season will provide some support for freight rates. The European and American markets typically enter the back-to-school season and Christmas stocking preparation phase in August, and import demand is expected to remain relatively robust. Meanwhile, the typhoon season begins in July, and typhoon weather may cause phased impacts on route operations, further tightening market supply.
Over the medium to long term, freight rate trends will depend on the evolution of supply-demand dynamics. On the supply side, newbuilding orders from global shipyards are being progressively delivered, and a new peak of capacity release is expected from the second half of 2026 through 2027. On the demand side, the strength of European and American consumer market recovery and the pace of inventory replenishment remain to be observed.
Predictions from multiple authoritative institutions indicate that the SCFI composite index may fluctuate between 2,500 and 3,000 points in the second half of 2026, with the Europe route freight index's 2,000-point level becoming an important support zone. There is limited room for further significant freight rate increases, but the likelihood of a sharp decline is equally low.
The SCFI five-week rally and Europe route freight rates breaking through2,000 points are the result of multiple factors working together — demand recovery, tight capacity, rising costs, and improved market structure — jointly driving this strong freight rate rebound. For international logistics companies, freight forwarders, and import-export traders, accurately grasping market dynamics and flexibly adjusting operating strategies will be key to surviving and thriving in the era of high freight rates. Looking ahead, shipping market volatility may persist, but Chinese logistics enterprises are also continuously improving their ability to respond to market changes through digitalization and professionalization.
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