On Friday, December 19th, the shipping giant Maersk announced that one of its vessels successfully traversed the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

This marks the company's first journey through this maritime region in nearly two years. With hopes rising due to the Gaza ceasefire bringing a sense of optimism to the Middle East, shipping companies are reassessing whether to return to this critical Asia-Europe trade route.

In a statement, Maersk mentioned that one of its smaller vessels, the "Maersk Sebarok," completed this voyage on Thursday and Friday, employing the highest level of security measures during the journey.

Maersk stated that there are currently no plans to schedule more voyages. While there is no explicit plan to fully reopen the route yet, the company will gradually resume sailings via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea in a "step-by-step" manner.

Since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict in October 2023, Houthi rebels have attacked ships associated with Western countries such as Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom in the Red Sea waters multiple times, expressing support for Palestine, resulting in the sinking of several freighters.

The Suez Canal, linking to the Red Sea, is one of the busiest waterways globally, while the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, located at the southern end of the Red Sea, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, serving as a crucial passage for vessels traveling between the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean.

According to data from Clarksons Research, before these attacks occurred, this waterway accounted for approximately 10% of global maritime trade. In December 2023, international shipping giants such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced the suspension of their vessels passing through the Red Sea and opted to circumnavigate the Cape of Good Hope.

With the Middle Eastern situation significantly cooling down, the CMA CGM Group has cautiously navigated through the Suez Canal under permissible security conditions, while other shipping companies are also exploring the possibility of resuming operations.

Nikos Tagoulis, a shipping analyst at Intermodal Group, stated that most shipping companies seem to be in a wait-and-see mode, closely monitoring developments in the situation, as any substantial reopening could be a gradual process.

Analysts suggest that if Maersk resumes using the Suez Canal, it could trigger a chain reaction across the entire shipping industry. The increased journey time via the Cape of Good Hope results in significantly higher freight rates.

Simon Heaney, a container industry analyst at Drewry Shipping Consultants, stated, "We expect by the end of 2026, the situation will begin to resemble the conditions before the Houthi attacks."

"Risk levels have decreased, prompting shipping companies to dip their toes in the water.” However, Heaney noted that the actual scenario might still require monitoring the reactions from the Houthi rebels.

Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), anticipates that if the scale of traffic through the Suez Canal sees a more substantial recovery, ship demand could drop by around 10%.

"The possibility of reopening the Suez Canal is having a significant impact on market prospects."